[image_credit]REUTERS/Leah Millis[/image_credit][image_caption]As of Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight gave former Vice President Joe Biden a 92 percent chance of winning the state.[/image_caption]
The online poll was conducted among 1,021 likely voters in Minnesota last week, from Oct. 12 to Oct. 15, and the results’ margin of sampling error is 3.1 percentage points.
Separated by just five points and within the margin of error, this represents the closest the two presidential candidates have been in a recent public poll.
Recent polling
Fewer pollsters have surveyed Minnesota lately compared to in August and early September, when the state had a brief flirtation with national media outlets as a more than remote possibility for flipping from blue to red. On Aug. 31, FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a 69 percent chance of winning the state, giving Trump a little less than a third, the closest the site has had the race before or since.
More recently, pundits have placed Minnesota in the much more likely blue column. As of Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a 92 percent chance of winning the state, his highest odds since the race began. The site’s polling average put Biden at 50.7 percent, compared to Trump’s 41.6 percent — a spread of 9.1 points. Polls done in September and October have suggested Biden ahead by as little as 4 points and as many as 17.
Some recent polls suggest the race may be tightening as Election Day nears, though. A SurveyUSA poll released in early October found Biden ahead of Trump by 7 points, a slightly larger margin than the one in the MinnPost/Change Research poll, compared to 9 points in early September.
Change Research’s methodology involves targeting survey takers based on geography, age, gender, race and partisan identification via advertisements on websites and on social media. The company argues this allows it to “cast a net that is wider” than pollsters who rely on phone-based surveys. This poll was weighted — meaning the results were corrected to better represent the electorate — by gender, race/ethnicity, age, education and 2016 presidential vote.
[image_credit]REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst[/image_credit][image_caption]A SurveyUSA poll released in early October found Biden ahead of President Donald Trump by 7 points, compared to 9 points in early September.[/image_caption]
Smith versus Lewis
The poll also found that 48 percent of likely voters favor incumbent DFL Sen. Tina Smith, compared to 44 percent for her challenger, Republican former congressman and former conservative talk show host Jason Lewis, and 4 percent in favor of other candidates and five percent not sure. This also represents the closest these two candidates have been in a recent public poll.
[image_caption]Sen. Tina Smith[/image_caption]
Little national attention is being paid to Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the seat solidly Democratic, and the race between Smith and Lewis is seeing scant outside spending.
Early vs. Election Day votes
This election year, a record number of Minnesotans are expected to vote early or by mail, a side effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and encouragement by election officials and Democrats to keep traffic at polling places down.
This poll finds a stark divide in partisan preferences between people who have already voted and those who have not.
Of those who already voted, 79 percent said they had voted for Biden, while 17 percent said they had voted for Trump. In the Senate race, 76 percent said they had voted for Smith, compared to 17 percent for Lewis.
Those who had not yet voted heavily favored Republicans: 61 percent said they would vote for Trump if the election were held today, and 60 percent said they would vote for Lewis.
COVID-19
This poll also found Minnesotans split on how best to deal with the pandemic.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents (61 percent) said they had very or somewhat serious concerns about the coronavirus outbreak, while 39 percent said they had minor concerns or no concerns at all.
Forty-one percent favored taking all possible precautions to limit the spread of COVID-19 and waiting as long as it takes before safely resuming normal life, compared to 31 percent who said everyone is making too big a deal of COVID-19 and normal life should be resumed even if some get sick. Twenty-eight percent favored keeping some precautions in place while returning to work and public places to keep the economy afloat.
Sixty percent of respondents strongly or somewhat supported mandating masks in indoor public places, while 39 percent strongly or somewhat opposed such a mandate. Fifty-seven percent strongly or somewhat supported in-person school resuming in their county, compared to 31 percent who strongly or somewhat oppose it.
Sixty percent of respondents were very or somewhat confident that a vaccine that may be approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration would be safe and effective, compared to 41 percent who were not very or not at all confident.
Sorry, but I lost all confidence in this survey when I read that respondents were “targeted” by using internet ads and social media.
Maybe that’s why it seems a bit of an outlier.
Yes! Surprisingly sloppy.
538 rates the surveyor as C-, or close to average. Including this survey, their model corrently shows Biden as 90% likely to win MN. Smith is “very likely” to beat Lewis, and Hagedorn is “slightly favored” to hold his seat.
Wow, the skew on who’s voted early vs. planning to vote on Election Day for Biden vs. Trump is… whoa.
Yes, that skew is present across America. More Dems vote early/via mail.
(I should say – that skew is visible in the cross tabs.)
Biden’s narrow polling lead is in the ‘margin of terror’ category, in my view…at least until he is safely sworn-in on January 20th.
This was essentially an online poll of self selected participants. Change Research can make whatever claims they want about their innovation and methodology but they have almost no track record and no comparative research to support those claims. I’m not saying this is garbage but these guys are old Paypal and Linkedin executives, that’s a marketing background.
Right. Advertising on social media? Good grief.
I would like to see experts discuss the strengths and weaknesses of this polling methodology. Any reliance on the social media obviously skews the results toward those who have a social media presence and are more active on it. That would then to exclude older and poor people – and skew those who participate as more politically active. That income and access to technology was not addressed statistically was very concerning.
Online surveys in themselves in which people volunteer to participate are never scientifically valid – as they reflect those of us with strong opinions. More description of how the online recruiting was actually conducted would be desirable. One cannot conclude from this poll alone that things are tightening up, as radically different methodologies will produce very different results with the same population.
Spot on. The more I think about it, why did MinnPost commission this outfit and was the methodology clear up-front? Very disappointing.
So far, internet and phone polling (along with their weighting systems) have given about the same results.
What was the accuracy of Change Research in the 2016 and 2018 elections here or other races around the country? Knowing those results will indicate the trustworthiness of this data.
538 gives them a C- rating based on past performance. So not great, but not one of the polls they no longer use due to inaccurate results.
I will never understand how or why anyone supports these creatures such as trump and lewis who constantly spew insults while showing no integrity or humanity.
Yes, it’s really appalling that any significant number of people would support the likes of trump and Jason Lewis. What’s the source of such flagrant bad judgement?
While I doubt the validity of this “poll,” it continues to amaze me that people are dumb enough to vote for Trump or Lewis if they know anything about the record and positions those incompetent, corrupt politicians have made very clear. This is the ultimate proof that nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American voter.
Unfortunately, it’s less about lack of native intelligence and more about willful ignorance and enthusiasm for white nationalism–a mantle which Trumpolini has (incredibly) assumed, despite his (obvious) low intelligence.
The nationwide networks of “conservative” propaganda (radio, TV, and now YouTube) do not help matters any. The nation is in very serious danger, and this could very well be the last election as a putative “democracy”. Indeed, the confirmation of rightwing Justice Amy probably ensures that.
A new poll out shows a 10% lead for Biden. Statistics being what they are, both polls might be accurate. I.e. if the truth is between them, both pollsters could claim they’re correct, because all they’re saying is that it’s 95% likely they’re within three points of the truth – for each number.
Maybe its an outlier. Maybe its tightening.
Make sure you vote. That your friends vote. Send Biden or Smith some money. Or send some to a state house or senate candidate in a close race.
Or go make calls. Get a hold of your local DFl outfit. They will have work for you. I realize that’s no fun, but it will help with the anxiety.
Absolutely- what Pat says. This should scare the bejeepers out you… go vote, do it now.
Never become elated nor despondent over any one poll. Go by an average of polls. Then keep your foot on the gas so we can run up the score against Don Trump, we not looking for the sportsmanship award here.
For US Senate races, keep an eye on how much outside money is flowing into the state. If the race here were close, we’d be seeing many more tv ads than we are now.
As I read these comments from a few the amount of bigotry, almost hatred towards conservatives astounds me.
Yeah, I mean look at all those liberals being arrested for plotting to attack police and kidnap governors, is that hate or what? Oh… wait. Well OK, look at our president running around the country promoting unity and compassion, and law abiding… oh wait.
Questioning the judgment and political intelligence of those supporting Trumpolini and conservative-entertainer Lewis is hardly “hatred”. But I am pleased you at least acknowledge that Trump is a product of the “conservative” movement, and that those who call themselves “conservative” support him.
Indeed, at this point many informed conservatives are not even willing to publicly admit they are voting for the unqualified human failure Donald Trump. Are you, Mr Dahl?
Conservatives seem to regard all opposition as “hatred,” rather than mere disagreement. My explanation for that is that they are so convinced of their own correctness and righteousness that the only reason they can imagine for anyone not agreeing with them is some kind of personal animus.
I am astounded by the amount of hatred and bigotry conservatives tolerate in supporting Trump. The tolerance for Trump’s non-stop lies.
Its not bigotry to be intolerant of someone else’s bigotry and lies. I look forward to the day when conservative once again does not necessarily mean bigoted.
Bigotry implies that conservatism is an inherent, immutable characteristic. One can STOP being conservative at any time, at which point any criticism toward one over ideology will cease. I am under no compunction to be civil with those whose ideology wishes me and mine harm.
Only if you want to be above the fray and turn the other cheek. Maybe this is the reason President Trump is the way he is, he has been under attack since before he was elected and protested against before he’d done anything but being sworn into office.
Or maybe President Trump is the way he is now because he has always been a loathsome specimen. We’re just seeing it more clearly.
And no, Trump has one, if not several biological brain diseases. He should be institutionalized, most likely permanently, as he poses a danger to himself and the public.
Yeah, sorry, I gave up the Christian delusion before I reached puberty.
The question on in-school attendance has flawed wording because it does not indicate the conditions under which children would attend. Those indicating support may be thinking in general terms rather then the current infection rate in the population that the school draws from.
It would be interesting to know the breakdown between those with children in school and those who do not.
Meh, that such an obviously flawed methodology still shows both candidates ahead (margin of error be as it may, there’s infinitesimal amounts of undecided out there), belies the true state of affairs. The easiest marker of the state of the race is that the “Trump train” has steamed its way right out of the Minnesota ad market, with a white flag flying from its stack.
MinnPost should not be wasting money on a poll. That just isn’t what we look to it for. At best, polls are a form of checkbook journalism. It is the buying of news.
I agree with Hiram, that was actually my first thought: “Minnpost conducted a poll?” The fact that they hired someone to do it for cheap is almost worse. Who do they think they are? The Strib?
Like we need another poll? Specially one this methodologically flawed.
The MOST obvious indictment of the state of the race for conservatism, is that like 2008 and 2012, the “sponsored” conservative commentariat has virtually disappeared across the spectrum of liberal internet media. I do hope they find more work…
Among other things, the Minn Post is a first poll. That means we can’t evaluate it. It has no track record or context. It’s like hearing that the temperature is 32 degrees outside. Is that warm or cold? You couldn’t possibly know unless you know whether the reading is in Centigrade or Fahrenheit. Without a lot more information, it is simply impossible to know what a Minn Post poll means this year.
One should not rely on one poll. It suggests things might be closing up. However at this point, polls should also be asking if people have voted already and who they voted for.